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Salford Business School

Professor Philip Scarf

Associate Dean Research and Innovation and Professor of Applied Statistics


Phil Scarf is Professor of Applied Statistics at the University of Salford. He has wide ranging interests in the application of Statistics and Operational Research in reliability and maintenance, manufacturing informatics, autonomous systems, corrosion science, and sport. He organizes conferences on Maintenance Modelling and Mathematics in Sport ( He has advised the FA Premier League regarding football player rating, having developed the EA Sports Player Performance Index ( with Ian McHale, and has held EPSRC grants relating to development of optimum strategy in track cycling (EP/F005792/1), modelling of the training process (EP/F006136/1), Bayesian calculations in maintenance modelling (GR/L92716), and condition based maintenance of production plant (GR/L20801). He was co-investigator on the EPRSC project “HEAD: Holistic evidence and design (HEAD): sensory impacts, practical outcomes”(EP/J015709/1), and the EU FP7 Marie Curie ITN: “SMART-E: Sustainable Manufacturing through Advanced Robotics Training – Europe” (€3.9m, 2013-17). On the latter, he supervised an early-stage researcher in “Mathematical modelling for a self-healing robotic cell (maintenance robot)”: He is editor-in-chief of the IMA Journal of Management Mathematics ( His publications are listed here: Summary: h-index 17 (ISI), 76 refereed journal articles, most cited: P.A. Scarf (1997) On the application of mathematical models in maintenance, Eur.J.Opl. Res. 99, 493-506 (>300 citations).


Modules delivered: Research Methods; Statistics

External examiner: Southampton (MSc OR, BSc Mathematics); Trinity College Dublin (BSc Management Sciences and Information Systems); Sheffield University (BSc Management).

Qualifications and Memberships

PhD (Manchester)

BSc (Sheffield)


Recent Publications

Moffatt, P.A.Scarf, L. Passfield , I. McHale, & K. Zhang (2014) To lead or not to lead: analysis of the sprint in track cycling. Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports DOI: 10.1515/jqas-2013-0112

A. Van Horenbeek, P.A. Scarf, C.A.V. Cavalcante, L. Pintelon (2013) On the effect of maintenance quality on spare parts inventory for a fleet of assets. IEEE Transactions on Reliability DOI: 10.1109/TR.2013.2270409.

M.D. Berrade, P.A.Scarf, CAV Cavalcante, R.A.Dwight (2013) Imperfect inspection and replacement of a non-repairable system with a defective state: a cost and operational reliability analysis. Reliab. Eng. Sys. Safety 120, 80-87.

M.D. Berrade, CAV Cavalcante & P.A.Scarf (2013) Modelling imperfect inspection over a finite horizon. Reliability Engineering and System Safety 111, 18-29.

K. Zhang, H. Chen, J. Boylan and P. Scarf (2013) Generalised estimators for seasonal forecasting by combining grouping with shrinkage approaches. Journal of Forecasting 32, 137-150.

M.D. Berrade, P.A. Scarf & C.A.V. Cavalcante (2012) Maintenance scheduling of a protection system subject to imperfect inspection and replacement.  Eur.J.Opl.Res. 218, 716–725.

P.A. Scarf  & S. Akhtar (2012) Forecasting test cricket match outcomes in play. Intl.J. Forecasting 28, 632-643.

K. Zhang, H. Chen, J. Boylan and P. Scarf (2011) Generalised estimators for seasonal forecasting by combining grouping with shrinkage approaches. Journal of Forecasting 10.1002/for.1254.

P.A. Scarf & C.A.V. Cavalcante (2012) Modelling quality in replacement and inspection maintenance. Intl.J.Prod.Econ. 135, 372-381.

I.G. McHale, P.A. Scarf & D.E. Folker (2012) On the development of a soccer player performance rating system for the English Premier League. Interfaces 42, 339-351.

K. Zhang, Y. Li, P.A. Scarf & A.Ball (2011) Feature selection using multiple models and radial basis function networks for rotating machinery fault diagnosis.  Neurocomputing 74, 2941-2952.

P.A. Scarf & H. Al-Majid (2011) Modelling warranty extensions: a case study in the automotive industry. Proc Inst Mech Eng part O: J of Risk and Reliability 225, 251-265.

C.A.V. Cavalcante, P.A.Scarf & A de Almeida (2011) A study of a two-phase inspection policy for a preparedness system with a defective state and heterogeneous lifetime. Reliab. Eng. Sys. Safety 69, 627-635.

P.A. Scarf  & S. Akhtar (2011) An analysis of strategy in the first three innings in test cricket: declaration and the follow-on. Journal of the Operational Research Society 62, 1931-1940.

P.A. Scarf & M. Mat Yusof (2011) A numerical study of tournament structure and seeding policy for the soccer World Cup Finals. Statistica Neerlandica 65, 43-57.

P.A. Scarf, X. Shi & S. Akhtar (2011) The distribution of runs scored and batting strategy in test cricket. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A 174, 471-497.

I. McHale & P.A. Scarf (2011) Modelling the dependence of goals scored by opposing teams in international soccer matches. Statistical Modelling 11, 219-236.

N.J.Laycock, P.J.Laycock, P.A.Scarf and D.P.Krouse (2010) Applications of Statistical Analysis Techniques in Corrosion Experimentation, Testing, Inspection and Monitoring. In Richardson J.A. et al. (eds.) Schreir’s Corrosion, volume 2, pp.1547-1580 Amsterdam, Elsevier.