Expert comment: how Middle East conflict threatens the Strait of Hormuz and UK supply chains

"The conflict in the Middle East has once again drawn global attention to the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow maritime passage between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. Bordered by Iran and Oman, the strait is one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints. Roughly a fifth of global oil consumption passes through these waters, making it highly sensitive to regional instability.

The conflict between Iran, Israel and the United States have heightened fears that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could be disrupted. Some shipping vessels are already moving away from the region due to the real threat of blockades, skirmishes, and attacks on commercial vessels. Even limited disruptions can send shockwaves through energy markets, pushing up oil and gas prices even further.  

For the United Kingdom, the consequences of any sustained disruption could be significant. Although the UK imports oil and liquefied natural gas from a variety of sources, global energy markets are interconnected. If supplies through the Strait of Hormuz are reduced, competition for alternative sources intensifies, driving up prices worldwide. Higher energy costs would affect transportation, manufacturing, and food production, placing additional strain on UK supply chains already challenged by post-pandemic adjustments and new trading arrangements.

Additionally, many goods transported through the region, from petrochemicals used in plastics and pharmaceuticals to consumer electronics assembled in Asia could also face delays or increased shipping insurance costs. This would likely lead to longer lead times, higher input costs for businesses, and ultimately higher prices for consumers.

In a globalised economy, regional conflicts rarely remain regional in their impact. The stability of the Strait of Hormuz is therefore not just a Middle Eastern concern but a matter of economic security for countries like the United Kingdom, whose supply chains depend on predictable and secure international trade routes."