Salford Business School

Recognised internationally for teaching and research excellence

Ian McHale, Salford Business School

Dr Ian McHale

Reader in Statistics

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Office Times

  • Monday: 3.00pm - 5.00pm
  • Thursday: 1.00 - 3.00pm


Ian gained a BSc (Hons) in Mathematical Physics from the University of Liverpool before studying for a PhD at the University of Manchester in Extreme Value Statistics. After a short time as an Investment Analyst, Ian returned to academia at the University of Salford. Ian is now Reader in Business Analytics and Director of the Centre for Sports Business Research. He is also Chair of the Statistics in Sport Section of the Royal Statistical Society. His research interests include statistics in sport and the analysis of gambling markets and various gambling issues.

Ian has been involved in several high-profile consultancy projects with, for example, the General Medical Council, the Press Association, Football DataCo, the Premier League, and various bookmakers. He was co-creator of the EA SPORTS Player Performance Indicator, the official player rating system of the Barclays Premier League.


Ian currently teaches Quantitative and Statistical Analysis to second year students on the Business Studies, Management, Finance and Accounting and Economics courses at Salford Business School.

He has previously taught MSc modules on Statistical Modelling, and Statistical Inference.

Qualifications and Memberships

  • PhD, Statistics
  • BSc(Hons) in Mathematical Physics
  • FSA approved Investment Management Certificate
  • Fellow of the Royal Statistical Society.


Baker, R.D. and McHale, I.G. (to appear). “Forecasting exact scores in National Football League games”. International Journal of Forecasting.

McHale, I.G., Scarf, P.A. and Folker, D.E. (to appear, 2012). “On the development of a soccer player performance rating system for the English Premier League”. Interfaces.

Zeng, Z., Forrest, D. and McHale, I.G. (to appear). “Happiness and job satisfaction in a casino dominated economy”. Journal of Gambling Studies.

Forrest, D. and McHale, I.G. (to appear). “Gambling and problem gambling among young adolescents in Great Britain”. Journal of Gambling Studies.

Baker, R.D. and McHale, I.G. (2011). “Investigating the behavioural characteristics of lottery players using a combination preference model for conscious selection”. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A, 174, 4, 1071-1086.

Carmichael, F., McHale, I.G. and Thomas, D.A. (2011). “Maintaining market position: team performance, revenue and wage expenditure in the English Premier League”. Bulletin of Economic Research, 63, 4, 464-479.

McHale, I.G. and Morton, A. (2011). “A Bradley-Terry type model for forecasting tennis match results”. International Journal of Forecasting, 27, 2, 619-630.

McHale, I.G. and Scarf, P.A. (2011). “Modelling the dependence of goals scored by opposing teams in international soccer matches”. Statistical Modelling, 11, 199-216.

McHale, I.G. and Peel, D.A. (2010). “Habit and long memory in UK Lottery sales”. Economics Letters, 109, 7-10.

McHale, I.G. (2010). “Assessing the fairness of the golf handicapping system in the UK”. Journal of Sports Sciences, 28, 10, 1033-1041.

Baker, R.D. and McHale, I.G. (2009). “Modelling the probability distribution of winnings from a ticket in the UK National Lottery”. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A, 172, 4, 813-834.

Forrest, D., McHale I.G. and McAuley, K. (2008). “Say it ain’t so: corruption in sport”. International Journal of Sport Finance, 3, 156-166.

Forrest, D. and McHale, I. G., (2007). “Anyone for tennis (betting)?”. European Journal of Finance, 13, 8, 751–768.

Forrest, D. and McHale, I. G., (2007). “The relationship between a national and a multistate lotto game”. Journal of Gambling Business and Economics, 1, 3, 207-216.

McHale, I. G., and Scarf, P. A., (2007). “Modelling soccer matches using bivariate discrete distributions”. Statistica Neerlandica, 61, 4, 432-445.

McHale, I. G. and Laycock, P. J., (2006). “Applications of a general stable law regression model”. Journal of Applied Statistics, 33, 10, 1075-1085.

McHale, I. G. and Forrest D., (2005). “The importance of recent scores in a forecasting model for professional golf tournaments”. IMA Journal of Management Mathematics, 16, 2, 131-140.