Salford Business School

Courses developed in partnership with business leaders

Ian McHale

Professor Ian McHale

Professor of Sports Analytics

Office Times

Please email for an appointment

Biography

Ian gained a BSc (Hons) in Mathematical Physics from the University of Liverpool before studying for a PhD at the University of Manchester in Extreme Value Statistics. After a short time as an Investment Analyst, Ian returned to academia at The University of Salford. Ian is now the Class of ‘92 Professor of Sports Analytics.

Ian was founding Chair of the Statistics in Sport Section of the Royal Statistical Society and serves as Associate Editor of the Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, a journal of the American Statistical Association. His research interests include statistics in sport and the analysis of gambling markets and various gambling issues.

Ian has been involved in several high-profile consultancy projects with, for example, the General Medical Council, the Press Association, Football DataCo, the Premier League, and various bookmakers. He was co-creator of the EA SPORTS Player Performance Indicator, the official player rating system of the Barclays Premier League.

Teaching

Ian has taught a wide-range of quantitative courses from Introductory Statistics to MSc module in Statistical Inference. Ian designed and delivered a bespoke postgraduate course on Sports Trading and Pricing. The course covered forecasting models for football, tennis and cricket.

Qualifications and Memberships

PhD, Statistics

BSc(Hons) in Mathematical Physics

FSA approved Investment Management Certificate

Fellow of the Royal Statistical Society

Publications

Refereed Journal Articles

Baker, R.D. and McHale, I.G. (to appear). “Making better decisions: can minimizing frequentist help?”. International Journal of Probability and Statistics.

Asif, M. and McHale, I.G. (2016). “In-play forecasting of win probability in One-Day In- ternational cricket: a dynamic logistic regression model”. International Journal of Forecasting.

Baker, R.D. and McHale, I.G. (2015), “An empirical Bayes’ procedure for ranking players in Ryder Cup golf”, Journal of Applied Statistics.

Szczepanski, L. and McHale, I.G. (2015). “Beyond completion rate: evaluating passing ability of footballers”. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A.

Baker, R.D. and McHale, I.G. (2015). “Time varying ratings in association football: the all-time greatest team is...”. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A, 178: 481-492. doi: 10.1111/rssa.12060.

Baker, R.D. and McHale, I.G. (2014). “Deterministic evolution of strength in multiple comparisons models: who is the greatest golfer?”. Scandinavian Journal of Statistics. doi: 10.1111/sjos.12101.

Moffatt, J., Scarf, P.A., Passfield, L., McHale, I.G. and Zhang, K. (2014). “To lead or not to lead: analysis of the sprint in track cycling”. Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sport, 10, 2, 161-172.

Baker, R.D. and McHale, I.G. (2014). “A dynamic paired comparisons model: who is the greatest tennis player?”. European Journal of Operational Research. 236, 677-684.

Baker, R.D. and McHale, I.G. (2013). “Optimal Betting Under Parameter Un- certainty: Improving the Kelly Criterion”. Decision Analysis. DOI: 10.1287/deca.2013.0271

McHale, I.G. and Szczepanski, L. (2013). “A mixed effects model for identifying goal scoring ability of footballers”. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A. DOI: 10.1111/rssa.12015

McHale, I.G. and Asif, M. (2013). “A modified Duckworth-Lewis method for adjusting targets in interrupted limited overs cricket”. European Journal of Operational Research, 225, 353-362.

Baker, R.D. and McHale, I.G. (2013). “Forecasting exact scores in National Football League games”. International Journal of Forecasting, 29, 122-130.

Zeng, Z., Forrest, D. and McHale, I.G. (2013). “Happiness and job satisfaction in a casino dominated economy”. Journal of Gambling Studies, DOI: 10.1007/510899-012- 9321-1.

McHale, I.G., Scarf, P.A. and Folker, D.E. (2012). “On the development of a soccer player performance rating system for the English Premier League”. Interfaces, 42, 339-351.

Forrest, D. and McHale, I.G. (2012). “Gambling and problem gambling among young adolescents in Great Britain”. Journal of Gambling Studies, 28, 607-622.

Baker, R.D. and McHale, I.G. (2011). “Investigating the behavioural characteristics of lottery players using a combination preference model for conscious selection”. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A, 174, 4, 1071-1086.

Carmichael, F., McHale, I.G. and Thomas, D.A. (2011). “Maintaining market posi- tion: team performance, revenue and wage expenditure in the English Premier League”. Bulletin of Economic Research, 63, 4, 464-479.

McHale, I.G. and Morton, A. (2011). “A Bradley-Terry type model for forecasting tennis match results”. International Journal of Forecasting, 27, 2, 619-630.

McHale, I.G. and Scarf, P.A. (2011). “Modelling the dependence of goals scored by opposing teams in international soccer matches”. Statistical Modelling, 11, 199- 216.

McHale, I.G. and Peel, D.A. (2010). “Habit and long memory in UK Lottery sales”. Economics Letters, 109, 7-10.

McHale, I.G. (2010). “Assessing the fairness of the golf handicapping system in the UK”. Journal of Sports Sciences, 28, 10, 1033-1041.

Baker, R.D. and McHale, I.G. (2009). “Modelling the probability distribution of winnings from a ticket in the UK National Lottery”. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A, 172, 4, 813-834.

Forrest, D., McHale I.G. and McAuley, K. (2008). “Say it ain’t so: corruption in sport”. International Journal of Sport Finance, 3, 156-166.

Forrest, D. and McHale, I. G., (2007). “Anyone for tennis (betting)?”. European Journal of Finance, 13, 8, 751-768.

Forrest, D. and McHale, I. G., (2007). “The relationship between a national and a multistate lotto game”. Journal of Gambling Business and Economics, 1, 3, 207-216.

McHale, I. G., and Scarf, P. A., (2007). “Modelling soccer matches using bivariate discrete distributions”. Statistica Neerlandica, 61, 4, 432-445.

McHale, I. G. and Laycock, P. J., (2006). “Applications of a general stable law regression model”. Journal of Applied Statistics, 33, 10, 1075-1085.

McHale, I. G. and Forrest D., (2005). “The importance of recent scores in a forecasting model for professional golf tournaments”. IMA Journal of Management Mathematics, 16, 2, 131-140.

Book Chapters

McHale, I.G. and Baker, R.D. (2015), “Econometric modelling of Match Results and Scores” in Goddard, J. and Sloane, P. (eds.), Handbook On The Economics Of Professional Football (Edward Elgar).

Forrest, D., McHale, I.G., Sanz, I. and Tena, J.D. (2015), “Determinants of national medals totals at the summer Olympic Games: an analysis disaggregated by sport” in Rodriguez, P., Kesenne, S. and Koning, R. (eds.), The Economics of Competitive Sport (Edward Elgar).

Koning, R.H. and McHale, I.G. (2012), “Estimating match and World Cup winning probabilities”, in Maennig, W. and Zimbalist, A. (eds.), International Handbook on the Economics of Mega Sporting Events (Edward Elgar).

Forrest, D., Ceballos, A., Flores, R., McHale, I.G., Sanz, I. and Tena, J.D. (2012), “Explaining and forecasting national team medals totals at the Summer Olympic Games”, in Maennig, W. and Zimbalist, A. (eds.), International Handbook on the Economics of Mega Sporting Events (Edward Elgar).

Forrest, D. and McHale, I.G. (2011), “Subjective wellbeing and engagement in sport” in P Rodrguez, S Ksenne and B Humphreys (eds.), The Economics of Sport, Health and Happiness: The Promotion of Well-Being through Sporting Activi- ties (Edward Elgar).

Forrest, D., McHale, I.G. and McAuley, K., (2009) “Risks to sport from the betting sector” in Rodriguez, P., Kesenne, S. and Garcia, J. (eds.), Threats to Sports and Sports Participation. University of Oviedo Press.

McHale, I.G. and Davies, S.M., (2007). “Statistical analysis of the FIFA world rankings” in R. Koning and J. Albert (eds.), Statistical thinking in sport, Chapman and Hall.

Forrest D. and McHale, I. G., (2005). “Longshot bias: insights from the betting mar- ket on men’s professional tennis” in L. Vaughan Williams and R. Sauer (eds.), Efficiency of Betting Markets, Cambridge University Press.

Other publications

McHale, I.G. and Baker, R.D. (2012). “Playing the lottery with a little bit of stats know-how?”. Significance (magazine of the Royal Statistical Society and the American Statistical Association).

McHale, I.G. (2010). “Mathematics of predicting football results”. Institute of Engi- neering and Technology Magazine.

Forrest, D., McHale I.G. and Parke, J. (2009). Technical report in “British Survey of children, the National Lottery and Gambling 2008-09: Report of a quantitative survey”. National Lottery Commission and Ipsos MORI.

Forrest, D. and McHale, I.G. (2008). “Betting and sport”. Society for the Study of Gambling Newsletter, no. 42, pp. 9-17.

Forrest, D., McHale I.G. and McAuley, K., (2008). “Sport and betting: corruption risks”, World On-Line Gambling Law Report.

Forrest, D., McHale I.G. and McAuley, K., (2008). “Risks to the Integrity of Sport from Betting Corruption”. Report commissioned by the Central Council for Physical Recreation (The Port and Recreation Alliance).

McHale, I.G. (2007). “Quantitative studies in sport”. The Operational Research Society, Keynote Papers. ISBN: 0 903440 39 3.

McHale, I. G. and Scarf, P. A., (2005). “The Actim Index”. Significance (magazine of the Royal Statistical Society).