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Professor Brian Dangerfield

Professor of Systems Modelling

  • Maxwell 613
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Joined Salford in 1975 after a period in industrial operational research and in research at the University of Liverpool. Promoted to Professor of Systems Modelling in 2000. Served as Executive Editor of the System Dynamics Review 2002-11.


Management Science

Systems Thinking

System Dynamics

Systems Approaches in Management Research (Doctoral Programme)

Research Interests

Main research interest is in the application of system dynamics simulation models to policy-level issues in economics, business, health and public policy generally. Domains have included the epidemiology of HIV/AIDS, patient pathways and managing capacity enhancements in tertiary health care, economies of scale and capacity management in the steel industry, tourism, macro-economic modeling, competitiveness in the UK construction industry, childhood obesity and diffusion of mobile telephony.

Qualifications and Memberships

PhD; Dip Ind Admin; BSc Econ

Member of:

System Dynamics Society

Operational Research Society

British Academy of Management


Publications since 2000:

“Propagating a digital divide: Diffusion of mobile telecommunication services in Pakistan”, Technological  Forecasting and Social Change, Vol 80: 5, 992-1001, 2013. (with M Mir)

“Some Results from a System Dynamics model of Construction Sector Competitiveness”, Mathematical and Computer Modelling,  Vol 57: 9-10, 2032-2043, 2013 (with NR Gilkinson)

“The Role of Behaviour Change in Eating and Physical Activity in the Battle against Childhood Obesity”,  Procs of the International System Dynamics Conference, Washington DC, 2011. (Online at (with N Zainal Abidin)

“Exploring the Effects of Interventions to combat Childhood Obesity: inducing behavioural change in eating habits”. Procs of the International Conference on Operations Research and Statistics, Penang, Malaysia, 94-99, 2011, Global Science and Technology Forum. (with N Zainal Abidin)

“Judgment and Supply Chain Dynamics”, Jnl Opl Res Soc, Vol 62: 1138-1158, 2011 (with A Syntetos, N Georgantzas, J Boylan)

“Modelling the Sustainability of Mass Tourism in Island Tourist Economies”, Jnl Opl Res Soc, Vol 62: 1742-1752, 2011  (with Y Xing)

“Towards a model-based Tool for Evaluating Population-level          Interventions against Childhood  Obesity”, Procs of the International System Dynamics Conference, Korea, 2010. (Online at (with N Zainal Abidin)

“Complex Systems in Finance and Econometrics”, Springer, NY, 2010.  (B Dangerfield and B Mizrach Eds.)

“Understanding Construction Competitiveness: the contribution of system dynamics”, Construction Innovation: Information, Process, Management  Vol 10:4, 408-420,  2010. (with SD Green and S Austin)

“Optimization of System Dynamics Models”, in: Encyclopaedia of Complexity & Systems Science, Springer, New York, USA, 2009. pp.9034-9043.   Reprinted in Complex Systems in Finance and Econometrics, Springer, New York, USA, 2010.

“A System Dynamics based Simulation Study for Managing Clinical Governance and Pathways in a Hospital” Jnl Opl Res Soc, Vol 61, 2009 pp255-264. (with M Maliapen)

“Proceedings of the 2008 International System Dynamics Conference, Athens”, (Editor)   ISBN 978-1-935056-00-3

“A Dynamic Model to Manage Competitive Performance amongst Contracting Firms”.  Procs of the Transformation through Construction conference, CIB W65/55, Dubai, 2008.  9pp.  (with M Quigley and JR Kearney)

“A Dynamic Policy Model to Manage Temporal Performance amongst Contracting Firms in a Competitive Situation”. Procs of the International System Dynamics Conference, Athens, Greece, 2008. (Online at .  (with M Quigley and JR Kearney)

“System Dynamics Advances Strategic Economic Transition Planning in a Developing Nation”. In Complex Decision-Making: Theory & Practice, H.Qudrat-Ullah, M Spector & P Davidsen (Eds.), Springer, NY. 2008. pp185-209

“Using the System Dynamics Methodology to model the Competitive Index of Firms in the UK Construction sector”. In: Proceedings of the Symposium on Sustainability and Value through Construction Procurement, P McDermott & MMA Khalfan (Eds.), Salford Centre for Research & Innovation, 2006. pp450-460 (with M Quigley, JR Kearney and A Fleming)

“A System Dynamics Model for Economic Planning in Sarawak”.  Procs of the International System Dynamics Conference, Nijmegen, The Netherlands, 2006. (Online at

Modelling the Feedback Effects of Reconfiguring Health Services” Jnl Opl Res Soc, Vol. 56, 2005. pp659-675. (with KS Taylor)          This paper awarded the Operational Research Society 2005 Goodeve Medal.  Also cited amongst the 25 most significant papers appearing in the journal in the 60 years, 1950-2009.

“Towards a Transition to a Knowledge Economy: How System Dynamics is Helping Sarawak plan its Economic and Social Evolution'', ICFAI Journal of Knowledge Management, Vol.III, No. 4, 2005. pp40-56.  Also in Procs of the International System Dynamics Conference, Boston, USA, 2005. (Online at

“Simulation Analysis of the consequences of shifting the balance of health care: a system dynamics approach” Journal of Health Services Research & Policy, Vol 10, No. 4, 2005. pp196-202.  (with KS Taylor and J LeGrand)

“The problem and solution in using delay functions with bifurcating flows in system dynamics models”. In: Procs of the International Conference on Management Science & Engineering -- Vol. I, Harbin Institute of Technology, PR China, 2004. pp835-844  (with Y Fang)

“Stimulation of Demand for Health Care: evidence from a model-based case study of shifts in cardiac catheterisation provision”. In: Procs of the 2003 International Symposium on Health Sciences Simulation,  J.G. Anderson and M. Katzper Eds., Society for Modelling and Simulation International 2003. pp31-36. (with KS Taylor)

“Model-based scenarios for the epidemiology of HIV/AIDS: the consequences of highly active antiretroviral therapy”, System Dynamics Review, Vol 17, No. 2, 2001, pp119-150. (with CA Roberts and Y Fang)

“A Strategic Evaluation of Capacity Retirements in the Steel Industry”, Jnl Opl Res Soc, Vol.51, No.1, 2000, pp.53-60. (with CA Roberts)